It’s not over yet: Why another test of the tariff lows may be needed for Wall Street to relax

Published Mon, Apr 14 20254:01 PM EDTUpdated Mon, Apr 14 20257:09 PM EDT

Jesse Pound @/in/jesse-pound @jesserpound

Stocks rose again on Monday in another volatile session , marking the third positive day in four for the S & P 500 as Wall Street tries to recover from the tariff sell-off earlier this month. But the index did briefly drop into the red in midday trading, a sign that investors may still be uneasy. .SPX 1D mountain The S & P 500 suffered a midday swoon on Monday. History suggests that they are right to be skeptical. Paul Ciana, Bank of America technical strategist, said in a note to clients Monday that the market may need to retest its lows before it makes a true bottom. "Many past cyclical bear markets suggest an approximate retest of the low tends to occur to form a more tangible bottom as market risks and fears recede. This included in Q4 of 1987. Six weeks after Black Monday, the lows were retested," Ciana wrote. The S & P 500 was trading about 8% above its April 8 closing low on Monday afternoon. Ciana also pointed out that the S & P 500's 50-day moving average is getting closer to its 200-day moving average. When those intersect in a " death cross " — and do so while the 200-day average is falling — it is historically a bad sign for the index over the next 15 to 20 trading days, Ciana said. But you don't have to dive into the world of charts to sense some unease about this rally. Mark Gibbens, investment strategist at BOK Financial, told CNBC's Fred Imbert after Trump's market-moving pause announcement last week that there were still plenty of hurdles to overcome. "We still have the 10% baseline tariffs out there that are basically on all countries. We still have the Chinese tariffs, which have been ratcheted up now to 145%, and we still have the 25% non-USMCA tariffs on Canada and Mexican goods," Gibbens said. The Trump administration has since announced some tariff relief for technology products, and the president on Monday hinted at more relief for automakers . Still, the tariffs are just one external variable that could keep traders on edge in the coming months. "We are less excited that the outlook has durably changed. Recession probabilities and inflation impacts eased only modestly, and we still think the S & P 500 will be range-bound between 4,900 and 5,700 until August or September when budgets, the tax bill and the debt ceiling agreement are finalized. Consider avoiding knee-jerk reactions to headlines," Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in a note to clients Monday. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today's dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You'll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!