The situation in Ukraine is taking a toll on Vladimir Putin, and his search for allies is becoming increasingly desperate. With Ukraine's drones striking deep into Russian territory, including the culturally significant cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg, Putin's grip on the war seems to be weakening. This has led him to reach out to allies, a move that analysts describe as a sign of his growing nervousness.
The Loss of Allies
Putin's recent loss of a long-term ally, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, is a significant blow. Natia Seskuria, a senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, believes this shift towards Europe is a major setback for Putin, especially after Hungary's election of a pro-Europe government. Seskuria suggests that Putin's invitation to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is a direct result of these losses, and we can expect more such diplomatic engagements to secure his allies.
Reconsidering Relationships
The public admission by Putin of fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian strikes is a rare moment of vulnerability. Seskuria argues that this, coupled with the visible impact of the war, will lead smaller European states to reconsider their support for Russia. The risks associated with backing Russia are becoming increasingly apparent, and Ukraine's ability to strike deep into Russian territory may cause fear among neighboring nations like Belarus.
A Strategic Move
Dr. Peter Braga, a lecturer in post-Soviet politics, agrees that Russia's outreach to Belarus is a strategic move. Belarus's border with Ukraine was used to launch the full-scale invasion, and Putin's rapid infrastructure buildup along this border suggests a potential new ground offensive. Braga believes that Putin's message to Lukashenko, "no funny business," is a recognition of the Belarusian leader's craftiness and a warning against any potential betrayal.
Looking East for Support
Keir Giles, an associate fellow at Chatham House, suggests that as European allies waver, Putin will turn to Asia for support. Central Asia and other regions have a long history of Soviet influence, and Russia's positioning as an "anti-colonialist power" has been effective. Loyalty to the Kremlin is strong in these areas, and Putin may find more willing partners there. Giles believes that Putin's global program is driven by a desire to avoid isolation, and Asia presents an opportunity to consolidate support.
Conclusion
Putin's search for allies is a sign of his growing isolation and the shifting dynamics of the war. As Ukraine gains the upper hand, Putin's diplomatic efforts become more crucial. The loss of European allies and the potential for further defections highlight the fragility of his position. Personally, I think Putin's reach for support in Asia is a fascinating development, as it showcases his strategic thinking and the global implications of the war in Ukraine.
